Cabinet Reshuffling: Will Zacch Adedeji Edge out Wale Edun as Finance Minister?

In less than one week, Nigeria will turn 64, but how much better off is the average Nigerian today compared to 1960?

The government is currently dealing with the worst cost of living crisis in decades, a socially and politically divided citizenry. Rating agencies now say that the current administration has one of the lowest job approval ratings since the country returned to democracy in 1999.

Many have described Nigeria as a tenacious medical patient suffering from high blood pressure, acute malaria, and chronic diabetes.

The people now eagerly wait for what President Bola Ahmed Tinubu would say or do with his second Independence Day speech.

According to insiders, President Tinubu has started the process of cabinet reshuffling, and this may be the highlight of his Independence Day speech.

Though there have been rumours on those who may lose their jobs. The list remains highly classified. Top on the list of ministries whose policies and actions are believed to have significantly influenced the negative perception of the government are defence, agriculture and food security, industry-trade-investment, and finance.

Some of the outgoing ministers have already seen the writing on the wall as those who have been pencilled down to replace them have intensified lobbying and started acting in some capacity.

One person that is at the centre of these power moves is an old-time ally of the President and the Executive Chairman of the Federal Inland Revenue Service, FIRS, Zaccheus Adedeji.

Sources who spoke to us on the condition of anonymity say that “Zack,” as he is fondly called by Mr. President, has softly spoken to the President on an alternative policy direction for the economy.

His greatest obstacle remains how he will convince the President’s wife, Remi Tinubu, who has firmly supported the current minister of finance and coordinating minister of the economy, Wale Edun.

Sources close to the presidency and influential industry stakeholders also hint at a brewing conflict that has taken shape between these two men. The crux of this tension lies in their contrasting approaches to key fiscal policies, especially in the context of the ,government’s much-debated fuel subsidy removal and how the savings are being utilised by the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, NNPC.

Zaccheus Adedeji, appointed as FIRS Executive Chairman on September 15, 2023, has garnered significant praise for his bold reforms and strategic foresight. His leadership has transformed Nigeria’s tax administration system, setting new benchmarks for transparency, efficiency, and revenue generation. Within just one year, the FIRS shattered previous revenue records, collecting a staggering N12.36 trillion and making an indelible mark on Nigeria’s fiscal landscape. His tenure has been characterised by sharp reforms and a people-centric philosophy that earned him admiration both locally and internationally.

Wale Edun, the Minister of Finance, has struggled to maintain an unblemished public perception since the fuel subsidy removal. Critics have pointed out that his handling of this delicate matter lacked the professionalism and tact needed to steer the nation through a period of intense economic strain. His position on introducing a cybersecurity tax, in collaboration with the Central Bank, has also raised eyebrows.

Many within President Bola Tinubu’s inner circle have voiced concerns, fearing that such a tax will further alienate an already burdened public.

Economists have noted the growing misalignment between these two key figures. In many ways, Adedeji’s ambitious revenue generation strategies are seen as a rebuke to Edun’s perceived underperformance.

Notably, the FIRS Chairman has been outshining Edun in public and behind closed doors. For instance, Adedeji’s proactive role in brokering the supply deal between the Dangote Refinery and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) raised questions. Why did Adedeji, not the Minister of Finance, take first charge of communicating the financial arrangements of such a significant transaction?

The answer, insiders suggest, may not only be about competence but about Zack’s ambition to be the next minister of finance.

Whispers of an impending cabinet shake-up have only grown louder as industry captains like Femi Otedola and Aliko Dangote are believed to now be throwing their weight behind Adedeji for the Finance Minister position. Both billionaires are known to have the ears of the President, and their influence cannot be discounted. Their support of Adedeji speaks volumes about their confidence in his ability to handle Nigeria’s fragile economy.

Adedeji’s achievements at FIRS and his growing reputation as a fiscal reformer are seen as pivotal in this power play. His close alignment with President Tinubu’s economic vision and track record of pushing through innovative fiscal policies, such as the Emergency Economic Intervention Bill (EEIB), adds to his already formidable résumé. This bill, aimed at stabilising the economy amid inflation and currency volatility, has been seen as a masterstroke and one of the reasons for Adedeji’s growing popularity.

Central to this power struggle is the issue of fuel subsidy removal. The subsidy had long been a contentious policy that many believed was unsustainable. Yet, the way the removal has been handled has left much to be desired, and Edun’s role in navigating these turbulent waters has been met with skepticism. The Nigerian populace has seen fuel prices soar, and with it, public dissatisfaction has increased towards the Dangote refinery project.

Adedeji’s move to position himself as chairman of the technical sub-committee negotiating the deal with the NNPC and Dangote Refinery is seen as a direct attempt to demonstrate his superior ability to handle these fiscal challenges. By taking the lead on the crude supply agreement, where petrol will be sold in Naira, Adedeji is not just trying to ease the economic pain but also signalling his readiness to handle more significant economic responsibilities.

The talk of a cabinet reshuffle is now more about “when” will it happen and no longer about “if” it will happen.

October 1st is seen as the day when these internal struggles may come to a head. Will Wale Edun’s tenure as Finance Minister come to an abrupt end? Will Zaccheus Adedeji’s aggressive lobbying and consistent struggle to be noticed finally earn him the coveted ministerial role?

The possibility of Adedeji replacing Edun is no longer mere speculation; it’s a real scenario that is being discussed in the highest echelons of government. If this reshuffle occurs, it will signify not only a change of guard but also a statement on the new direction President Tinubu wishes to steer Nigeria’s economic future.

As October 1st draws near, Nigeria stands at a crossroads. Zaccheus Adedeji’s meteoric rise at the FIRS has positioned him as a potential key figure in the country’s economic management. His bold leadership and knack for fiscal reforms have made him a standout performer in a Government grappling with economic challenges. In contrast, Wale Edun’s tenure as Finance Minister seems increasingly fragile, with his decisions scrutinized and critiqued.

The next few days will reveal whether President Tinubu decides to reshuffle his cabinet, placing Nigeria’s financial future in the hands of Adedeji. One thing is clear: both men represent different visions for the nation’s economic path, and the outcome of this internal power struggle could have lasting implications for Nigeria’s future.

With the support of industry titans and a proven track record, Zaccheus Adedeji could very well emerge as Nigeria’s next Minister of Finance, signaling a new yet uncertain era of fiscal leadership.